Підвищення рівня продовольчої безпеки в Україні в умовах сучасних викликів

Abstract

Food security is a critical issue facing nations worldwide, particularly in the context of global challenges such as pandemics and military conflicts. This thesis focuses on exploring the dynamics of food security in Ukraine, a country deeply impacted by both the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion by Russia in February 2022. The aim is to shed light on the measures taken to safeguard food security in Ukraine during these tumultuous times, while also identifying the ongoing challenges faced by the nation. The research effort seeks to delve into the practical implementation of food security strategies in Ukraine, examining the actions taken by the government and support programs initiated by partner countries. Additionally, the thesis includes a case study of an internal company, offering insights into efforts made at the enterprise level to enhance local food security. To guide this investigation, a central research question has been formulated: "What are the challenges facing Ukraine in terms of food security during military conditions, and what actions should be taken by the government and businesses to address them?" To address this research question effectively, several partial objectives have been outlined: - Providing a theoretical background of food security, including its history and development. - Analyzing the structure of agriculture in Ukraine. - Researching changes in food security dynamics. - Evaluating food inflation, export, and import of commodities in Ukraine. - Examining governmental efforts regarding food security. - Analyzing initiatives taken by enterprises to enhance local food security. - Correlation comparison of the impact of COVID-19 and a full-scale invasion of food security. The successful achievement of these objectives will contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the actions necessary to regulate food security in Ukraine amid aggressive events. Moreover, the findings can inform the development of protocols for action in crisis situations within Ukraine and serve as a valuable resource for international organizations and individual countries facing similar challenges. The thesis adopts a practical investigation approach, utilizing a combination of primary and secondary data sources. Secondary data sources, including journal articles, books, and reports from reputable institutions, were reviewed to establish background information. Context indicators such as welfare levels, export-import fluctuations, and household shares were integrated into the methodology to ensure the reliability and comprehensiveness of the collected data. A quantitative research design was employed, involving a data survey complemented by the primary data collection method. The survey followed a fourstep algorithm: information gathering, data evaluation and selection, data processing, and quantitative data design. Research activities were conducted online through scientific and statistical databases, allowing for a systematic and comparative analysis across different countries and regions. By integrating context indicators and utilizing quantitative methods, the research aligns with broader goals and emphasizes the importance of monitoring and evaluating progress towards food security objectives. Thematic analysis was chosen as the method to analyze the data collected from the research, involving the following steps: data collection through transcription and processing, data analysis including familiarization, coding, and categorization, integration with theory by quoting and illustrating, and finally, offering recommendations and future perspectives through summarization. In order to understand the relationship between the consumer price index and the gross domestic product, a correlation was used and divided for comparison into two periods: covid 19 and a full-scale invasion. Correlation is used to establish a potential linear relationship between two continuous variables. In economics, correlated variables can include the connection between demand and price, as well as the association between GDP and consumer spending.The Pearson formula was used to calculate the correlation: Formula 1: Calculation of correlation: 𝑟 =n (Σ 𝑥𝑦) − (Σ 𝑥 )(Σ 𝑦) √[𝑛 Σ 𝑥2 − ( Σ 𝑥 )2] ⋅ [𝑛 Σ 𝑦2 − ( Σ 𝑦 )2] Where: n = the number of data points, i.e., (x, y) pairs, in the data set. Σ𝑋𝑌 = the sum of the product of the x-value and y-value for each point in the data set. Σ𝑋 = the sum of the x-values in the data set. Σ𝑌 = the sum of the y-values in the data set. Σ𝑋2 = the sum of the squares of the x-values in the data set. Σ𝑌2 = the sum of the squares of the y-values in the data set. Methodology included the following steps: - Data Preparation: Consumer price index, gross domestic product were collected for 2017 – 2023 were organized in Excel spreadsheets. - Period Division: We divided data for tree periods: whole period(2017-2023), Covid 19 (2019-2022) and full scale invasion(2022-2023). - Calculation: For each periods, we calculated the correlation using the equation mentioned above. - Validation and Interpretation: the interpretation of the results is described below.